Burry再次做空，但期权市场在打哈欠
# Burry再次做空，但期权市场在打哈欠 Michael Burry今天又押注特斯拉要跌。有意思的是，上一次他公开做空特斯拉，三个月后股价不跌反涨——这次呢？
本期概要
一堆利空砸下来IV不升反降——期权市场用真金白银说：不构成系统性威胁。 Burry历史胜率极差，上海数据却在悄悄给多头续命，本周关键变量拆解。
完整解读
上方视频是 T哥 对这期的完整拆解。在 YouTube 上观看 →
这期读了哪些新闻
Waymo goes driverless in Las Vegas, with Denver, San Diego, Tampa next
Waymo在拉斯维加斯启动全无人驾驶运营，并宣布丹佛、圣地亚哥和坦帕为下一批扩张城市，加速推进2026年底每周100万次付费出行的目标，对Alphabet（GOOGL）构成积极催化剂，同时对特斯拉自动驾驶出租车业务形成竞争压力。
Tesla driver faces manslaughter charge after fatal crash
特斯拉Model 3司机因致命车祸面临过失杀人指控，事故造成一名76岁女性死亡，可能加剧特斯拉在自动驾驶安全方面的法律和声誉风险。
Elon Musk loses $50 billion in a single day; SpaceX moves bitcoin
马斯克单日财富蒸发逾500亿美元，特斯拉股价单日下跌近4%，市场情绪明显偏空。
Waymo Widens Lead Over Tesla, Expands Robotaxis To Four New Cities
Waymo在机器人出租车领域持续扩张至四个新城市，进一步拉大与特斯拉的差距，对特斯拉自动驾驶业务构成竞争压力。
China EV Exports Surge 150% as Tesla Posts Best 2026 Monthly Deliveries
特斯拉上海工厂交付量创2026年单月最佳，中国电动车出口大幅增长150%，有效对冲国内市场疲软，利好特斯拉基本面。
Semiconductors Below Support; Fed Minutes Ahead; Trump Says Iran Ceasefire Is Over, But Will He Back Off?
半导体板块跌破支撑位，叠加特朗普伊朗停火破裂的地缘政治风险，对科技股整体情绪构成压力。
'Big Short' Michael Burry Bets Against Nvidia and Tesla Again
知名空头Michael Burry再次做空英伟达和特斯拉，其历史预测记录引发市场关注，可能加剧投资者对两只股票的看空情绪。
Why a Tesla-SpaceX Merger Is No Sure Thing
分析师认为特斯拉与SpaceX合并短期内不太可能发生，消除了市场对潜在协同效应的乐观预期，对股价有轻微负面影响。
这期推进了哪些主线
Michael Burry建立特斯拉、英伟达等AI相关股票看空头寸：AI交易高估风险警示分析
Michael Burry has placed fresh bearish bets against both Nvidia and Tesla, representing a new round of short positions rather than just defending prior ones. This is a meaningful update to the ongoing Burry short thesis thread, confirming he is doubling down on his bearish stance with new disclosed positions.
[重点解析]Michael Burry disclosed new bearish positions against Tesla, Nvidia, Caterpillar, and Applied Materials, warning that the AI trade may be overextended beyond just Nvidia. The episode also covered Burry publicly defending his thesis against critics and confirming he is doubling down with fresh short positions, painting a picture of a high-conviction bear doubling down on his macro call.
SpaceX与特斯拉合并猜想：预测市场押注5万亿美元超级巨头可能性分析
BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello adds another sell-side skeptical voice to the merger speculation, outlining specific reasons why a Tesla-SpaceX merger is unlikely in the near term. This reinforces the cautionary counterpoint narrative already present in Thread #1015 with a new analyst and new institutional perspective.
[简要提及]BNP Paribas analyst James Picariello joined the chorus of skeptics, outlining specific reasons why a Tesla-SpaceX merger is unlikely in the near term. The episode framed this as further institutional pushback against the merger speculation circulating in prediction markets.
芯片股反弹点燃纳斯达克100指数回升：SK海力士美国上市前夕半导体板块风险偏好转向分析
Semiconductors are experiencing volatility as traders await SK Hynix's discount to Micron to close, adding a new price-convergence dynamic to the ongoing semi sector sentiment thread. A US cryptobank approval adds a macro regulatory angle as a secondary development.
[重点解析]Semiconductors drove a Nasdaq 100 rebound on Monday as investors rotated into risk assets ahead of SK Hynix's US listing, though the episode also noted that chip stocks had broken below a key technical support level. Geopolitical pressure from Trump declaring the Iran ceasefire over added further uncertainty to the sector's near-term outlook.
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