过山车一周，IV却跌到地板
# 过山车一周，IV却跌到地板 特斯拉本周日线振幅超过10个点，从389到432来回扫，但IV居然从46%跌到了42%——过去一年只有11%的时间比现在更便宜。这周的波动率市场在告诉我们什么？
本期概要
特斯拉一周振幅超10%，期权却跌到一年最低——做市商在压制波动，还是在为财报前的爆发蓄力？ 距离Q2财报只剩10天，IV处于地板价，这可能是过去一年最便宜的期权入场窗口。
完整解读
上方视频是 T哥 对这期的完整拆解。在 YouTube 上观看 →
这期读了哪些新闻
U.S. EV Sales Rebound To Their Highest Level Since The Tax Credit Ended
美国电动车销量在税收抵免结束后反弹至最高水平，Q2数据显示市场需求回暖，对特斯拉整体销售前景构成积极信号。
Tesla Robotaxi Success Endangered By Regulators
联邦监管机构对自动驾驶车辆与急救人员交互安全性提出严重质疑，可能对特斯拉Robotaxi商业化计划造成重大阻碍。
Prediction: Tesla Stock Will Surprise Investors Over the Next 5 Years
特斯拉Q1 2026营收同比增长15.78%，汽车毛利率提升490个基点至21.1%，自由现金流增长117%，基本面显著改善，长期前景乐观。
Why Tesla Stock Can’t Get Out of Its Own Way
特斯拉Robotaxi业务扩展难度超出投资者预期，短期内难以成为股价催化剂，市场情绪偏谨慎。
Elon Musk SEC settlement raises 'red flags,' judge says
法官对马斯克与SEC和解协议提出质疑，加之特斯拉面临自动驾驶事故诉讼、Robotaxi误导性声明及职场歧视指控，法律风险显著上升，可能对股价造成压力。
Why Is Tesla Bringing the Long-Wheelbase Model Y to the US?
特斯拉将长轴距Model Y引入美国市场，提供真正的三排座电动SUV，有望扩大市场份额并提升销量。
These are the top 10 best-selling EVs in the US so far in 2026
特斯拉仍占据美国电动车市场约50%份额，市场地位稳固，但竞争对手正逐渐获得市场份额，长期竞争压力值得关注。
Gary Black Says Tesla's Valuation Is So 'Stretched' That Most Institutional Investors Won't Touch the Stock— and FSD Isn't Helping
知名分析师Gary Black指出特斯拉估值过高，机构投资者普遍回避，FSD优势不足以支撑当前股价，对股票构成负面压力。
这期推进了哪些主线
摩根士丹利上调特斯拉二季度交付量预测至41.3万辆：欧洲与中国需求强劲驱动分析
Gary Black of The Future Fund explicitly states Tesla's valuation is too 'stretched' for most institutional investors to participate, and argues FSD advantages alone cannot justify the current stock price — adding a bearish institutional sentiment angle to the ongoing Tesla analyst commentary thread where Black was previously cited with bullish delivery expectations.
[重点解析]The episode covered analyst Gary Black's perspective that Tesla's recent stock rally is driven more by rising oil prices boosting Q2 delivery expectations (around 410K units, up ~7% YoY) than by FSD hype, while also noting his view that Tesla's valuation appears too stretched for most institutional investors despite bullish delivery forecasts. Ross Gerber's comment that Tesla had a 'solid' quarter was also mentioned, alongside expectations that sell-side analysts will raise earnings targets ahead of the official report.
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