英伟达GPU训练Grok 4.5，自己股价却跌了
# 英伟达GPU训练Grok 4.5，自己股价却跌了 ## 矛盾信号 英伟达用了数万块GPU训练SpaceX的Grok 4.5模型——结果发布当天，英伟达自己的股价在跌。这个矛盾，今天开盘会砸到SpaceX头上吗？
本期概要
股票分析师喊800目标价，债券市场风险溢价却在扩大——今天152就是多空分界线。 开盘15分钟决定SpaceX到底讲AI故事还是继续当大盘影子。
完整解读
上方视频是 T哥 对这期的完整拆解。在 YouTube 上观看 →
这期读了哪些新闻
SpaceX releases Grok 4.5, first model built alongside Cursor
SpaceX发布Grok 4.5 AI模型，与Cursor合作构建，拥有1.5万亿参数，专注企业AI市场，显示其在AI领域的重大进展，对竞争对手如MSFT、GOOGL、META构成一定竞争压力。
Elon Musk's SpaceX Poured $7.7 Billion Into AI Last Quarter. Here's the Bet Behind Its Widening Losses.
SpaceX IPO招股书显示公司上季度在AI领域投入77亿美元，导致亏损扩大，引发市场对其盈利能力的担忧，但同时也反映出对AI基础设施的大规模押注。
‘Tens of Thousands’ of Nvidia Chips Were Used to Train Grok 4.5. The Stock Is Dropping.
SpaceX的Grok 4.5模型训练使用了数万颗英伟达芯片，尽管NVDA股价短期下跌，但此消息验证了AI对高端GPU的持续强劲需求，对英伟达长期前景偏正面。
ASTS Stock Eyes Worst Week In Over A Month: FCC Chair Says SPCX, AMZN Are Heating Up Satellite-To-Cell Competition
FCC主席对SpaceX卫星直连手机服务持乐观态度，并对亚马逊等竞争者持开放态度，有利于卫星通信赛道整体发展，对AMZN的卫星业务具有一定利好。
SpaceX Lands on the Nasdaq-100: What Comes Next for Investors
SpaceX加入纳斯达克100指数将带来数十亿美元的被动资金流入，对股价有潜在支撑作用，但市场对后续走势仍存不确定性。
Raymond James Sets Wall Street's Highest Price Target on SpaceX Stock at $800. Here's the Math Behind the 425% Upside Call.
Raymond James分析师Brian Gesuale将SpaceX目标价设为华尔街最高的800美元，暗示425%的上涨空间，对SpaceX相关投资标的构成强烈看涨信号。
The Bond Market Is Sending a Terrifying Message to SpaceX -- but Is Anyone Listening?
SpaceX企业债券风险收益比在过去两周明显恶化，债券市场发出警示信号，可能对SpaceX相关投资标的产生负面影响。
NATO Allies Plan to Stitch Together Sovereign Space Fleets
八个北约盟国计划整合国防卫星网络，将推动航天防务需求增长，对SpaceX等航天企业具有潜在利好，但短期影响有限。
这期推进了哪些主线
SpaceX 250亿美元债券发行后表现不佳，投资者担忧持续融资压力
The bond market is now sending explicit warning signals about SpaceX's corporate debt, with the risk-versus-reward profile noticeably shifting over the past two weeks — a meaningful escalation from the initial post-IPO bond underperformance story. This adds a forward-looking market sentiment angle and suggests ongoing deterioration rather than a one-time pricing miss.
[重点解析]The episode reported that SpaceX's $25 billion post-IPO bond deal has lost money for investors despite being oversubscribed, with bond markets now sending escalating warning signals about the company's ongoing capital expenditure needs and repeated debt market tapping.
SpaceX将于7月7日加入纳斯达克100指数，股价上涨3%
This article shifts the narrative from SpaceX's index inclusion announcement to a broader concern about whether the Nasdaq-100 has become too risky due to elevated valuations following SpaceX's addition. It adds a valuation-risk angle not previously covered in the thread.
[简要提及]The episode discussed SpaceX's inclusion in the Nasdaq-100, noting that the rebalance is expected to trigger an estimated $4.3 billion in forced passive buying, while also raising questions about whether that mechanical demand is enough to sustain the stock's valuation long-term.
Keybanc启动SpaceX覆盖评级，给予与大盘同步中性评级
Gary Black publicly states he won't get interested in SPCX until it falls below $100, while Ross Gerber questions whether the stock can hold current levels near the IPO price of $135 — adding two named investor sentiment data points to the ongoing analyst coverage thread as the stock retreats sharply from its $225 high.
[重点解析]The episode covered the wave of Wall Street analyst initiations on SpaceX following the research ban lift, highlighting a range of views from Raymond James's bullish $800 price target to Bank of America's more cautious stance, while noting that SpaceX shares have retreated significantly from their post-IPO highs despite Nasdaq-100 inclusion.
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