SpaceX跌穿IPO价，8月锁定期炸弹还没炸
本期概要
锁定期8月开闸才是真正的供给悬崖——内部人成本个位数，123块对他们是天文数字利润。今天不是抄底日，是观察日：122守住等周四星舰，守不住115见。
完整解读
上方视频是 T哥 对这期的完整拆解。在 YouTube 上观看 →
这期读了哪些新闻
Meta Reportedly In Talks With Anthropic Over a $10 Billion AI Deal
Meta据报道正与Anthropic洽谈价值100亿美元的AI算力租赁协议，若成交将显著提升Meta在AI基础设施领域的商业变现能力。
Elon Musk's SpaceX has lost $1T in market cap since mid-June as Starship launch is scrubbed
SpaceX自6月中旬以来市值蒸发逾1万亿美元，星舰发射取消叠加员工及早期投资者解禁抛压，股价面临进一步下行风险。
Dow Jones Futures Fall As U.S.-Iran Attacks Escalate; Google, Tesla, AMD Ahead
美伊冲突升级导致道指期货下跌，市场避险情绪上升；谷歌、特斯拉等科技巨头即将发布财报，市场高度关注资本支出指引。
SpaceX's IPO Lockup Starts Expiring in August. Here's Why the Next Wave of Sellers Could Be the Real Test.
SpaceX内部人士锁定期将于8月开始到期，潜在的内部人士抛售压力可能对SpaceX股价构成下行风险。
Morgan Stanley Set a $300 Price Target on Elon Musk's SpaceX Stock
摩根士丹利为SpaceX设定300美元目标价，认可其独特商业模式的高成长潜力，但同时指出下行风险不容忽视。
Investing In Elon Musk Is 'Faith-Based': Julie Hyman's Warning Rings True As SpaceX Breaks Below IPO Price
SpaceX股价首次跌破135美元IPO发行价，市场对马斯克领导下公司的信心动摇，投资者情绪显著恶化。
Nvidia: AI Infrastructure Hitting Physical And Financial Limits
分析指出英伟达AI基础设施面临物理和财务双重瓶颈，超大规模资本支出2027年或触顶，长期增长存在隐忧。
SpaceX moves Starship launch attempt to Thursday
SpaceX星舰发射再度推迟，且马斯克与公司官方声明相矛盾，上次中止发射已致市值蒸发约1000亿美元，投资者信心受挫。
这期推进了哪些主线
SpaceX内部人员锁定期2027年6月到期，市场供应压力引发关注
This article focuses on the near-term August lockup expiration for SpaceX insiders, noting that the stock's recent slide has occurred with almost no insider supply hitting the market — and that this changes within weeks as the first wave of lockup expirations begins. It adds a specific timing detail and framing around the 'next wave' of sellers being a more significant test than the first.
[重点解析]The episode flagged the upcoming insider lockup expiration as a near-term supply pressure risk, noting that the first wave of unlocks coincides with SpaceX's August earnings report, creating a dual selling catalyst just as the stock has already been sliding toward its IPO price.
SpaceX星舰第13次飞行测试计划7月16日进行，将部署功能性星链卫星
The delay is now confirmed to be caused specifically by a Raptor 3 engine abort, and SPCX stock has slid toward its 52-week low as a result — adding a concrete technical cause and a new negative stock price milestone to the existing thread.
[重点解析]The episode covered the Starship Flight 13 delay, noting that a Raptor 3 engine abort caused the scrub and that conflicting statements from SpaceX and Elon Musk created timeline confusion, with the next attempt rescheduled to around July 23. The failed launch was linked to a roughly $100 billion drop in SpaceX's market value and pushed SPCX stock toward its 52-week low.
美伊紧张局势推升油价，道指期货下跌，英伟达美光等科技股接近买入点
Iran attacks have now killed three U.S. servicemembers, marking a direct escalation in the US-Iran conflict that previously only lifted oil prices and pressured chip stocks. This update adds a new casualty dimension to the geopolitical story while also flagging Google, Tesla, Intel, and GE Vernova earnings as the week's key market catalysts.
[简要提及]The episode briefly mentioned escalating US-Iran tensions, noting that Iranian attacks had now killed three U.S. servicemembers, while also flagging upcoming earnings from Google, Tesla, Intel, and GE Vernova as key market catalysts for the week.
SpaceX IPO招股书披露上季度AI投入77亿美元，亏损扩大引发盈利担忧
This article introduces a direct comparison between SpaceX and BWX Technologies, highlighting SpaceX's $4.9B net loss and negative free cash flow against BWX's steady 10%+ margins and positive cash generation. It adds a concrete peer-comparison framing to the existing SpaceX financials/profitability narrative.
[重点解析]The episode discussed SpaceX's post-IPO stock decline, highlighting the stock breaking below its $135 IPO price for the first time amid bearish catalysts including a Starship launch scrub, a $25 billion short position, and concerns over the company's $4.9 billion net loss and negative free cash flow. Historical IPO return data and a peer comparison to BWX Technologies were used to contextualize the valuation and profitability risks.
Keybanc启动SpaceX覆盖评级，给予与大盘同步中性评级
Gary Black publicly states he won't get interested in SPCX until it falls below $100, while Ross Gerber questions whether the stock can hold current levels near the IPO price of $135 — adding two named investor sentiment data points to the ongoing analyst coverage thread as the stock retreats sharply from its $225 high.
[深度拆解]The episode covered the wave of Wall Street analyst initiations on SpaceX stock following its IPO, highlighting a range of price targets from $220 to $300 (Morgan Stanley) alongside mixed ratings from firms including Deutsche Bank, Cantor Fitzgerald, RBC, Citi, Evercore ISI, and Argus, with some cautious voices like Keybanc and Argus warning of valuation risks and volatility. Notable bearish perspectives from Mark Yusko and investors Gary Black and Ross Gerber were also mentioned, framing the stock's retreat from its $225 peak toward its $135 IPO price.
每天一条 SPCX 判断，先你一步
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本内容仅供教育和信息目的，不构成投资建议。