两天后1160亿股份解禁，SpaceX今天115守不守
# 两天后1160亿股份解禁，SpaceX今天115守不守 SpaceX昨天单日跌6.7%——这还不是最可怕的。可怕的是两天后，价值1160亿美元的股份即将解锁。
本期概要
两天后价值1160亿美元股份解锁，期权市场给今天定价上市以来最贵波动——115守不守决定下周剧本。 Musk暗示合并是远期期权还是烟雾弹？今天三个价位帮你判断多空。
完整解读
上方视频是 T哥 对这期的完整拆解。在 YouTube 上观看 →
这期读了哪些新闻
Wall Street Won’t Give Up on Saylor’s Strategy, Sees 170% Upside
华尔街分析师对Strategy公司维持乐观态度，预计上涨空间达170%，但市场信心整体承压；文章还提及苹果与Klarna合作推出设备租赁计划，对AAPL有一定正面信号。
OpenAI Plans $30 Billion AI Data Center With 3.2 Gigawatts of Power
OpenAI计划在乔治亚州建设耗资逾300亿美元、3.2吉瓦的AI数据中心，将大幅提振AI基础设施需求，利好NVDA、MSFT等相关供应商。
Cathie Wood makes $20.5M bet on sliding tech stock
SpaceX股价大幅下跌，跌破135美元IPO发行价，受Starship延误、高估值及解禁抛压等多重利空因素影响；Cathie Wood逆势买入2050万美元。
Google Earnings, Revenue Top Views As Cloud Growth Accelerates. Search Results In-Line.
谷歌Q2财报超预期，云计算业务增长强劲，AI投入开始显现回报，对Alphabet股价构成强力支撑。
Google's Q2 earnings of $112.11B beat Wall Street's expectations on AI boom
谷歌Q2营收达1121亿美元超预期，AI驱动广告收入强劲，同时持有SpaceX股权大幅升值带来980亿美元净收益，对Alphabet构成重大利好。
Elon Musk hints at Tesla (TSLA)-SpaceX merger on earnings call
马斯克在特斯拉Q2 2026财报电话会议上暗示特斯拉与SpaceX可能合并，提及两公司业务重叠日益增加，虽未正式确认，但此举是迄今最直接的表态，可能引发市场对特斯拉估值重新定价的预期。
SpaceX Just Erased $1 Trillion in Value. Here’s Why the Worst Could Be Yet to Come.
SpaceX相关负面消息导致市值大幅缩水，期权交易者看空情绪浓厚，但该新闻主要涉及SPCX而非Mag7核心标的，对追踪股票直接影响有限。
SpaceX Earnings Are Coming Aug. 4. Here's Why Aug. 6 Could Prove to Be the Real Stress Test With SPCX Down 47% From Its High.
SpaceX财报将于8月4日公布，但8月6日早期解禁股份释放可能带来更大抛压，SPCX已较高点下跌47%。
这期推进了哪些主线
SpaceX内部人员锁定期2027年6月到期，市场供应压力引发关注
This article reports SpaceX has erased significant market value ahead of a flagged supply event tied to the insider lockup expiration, with options traders positioned at a bearish ratio. It adds concrete market cap loss figures and options market sentiment data to the existing lockup expiry supply-pressure narrative in Thread #1048.
[简要提及]The podcast noted that SpaceX has shed significant market value ahead of the June 2027 insider lockup expiration, with options traders taking a notably bearish stance in anticipation of increased share supply hitting the market.
SpaceX定于2026年8月4日发布首份季度财报，市场高度关注上市后盈利表现
This article adds a new angle to the SpaceX earnings thread by highlighting that August 6 — two days after earnings — marks the first wave of early-release eligible share unlocks, potentially creating greater selling pressure than the earnings report itself. SPCX is already down 47% from its high, adding urgency to the lockup release concern.
[重点解析]The episode highlighted that just two days after SpaceX's first quarterly earnings report on August 4, 2026, the first wave of early-release share unlocks kicks in — potentially creating more selling pressure than the earnings themselves, especially with SPCX already down 47% from its peak.
马斯克成为万亿富翁引发特斯拉与SpaceX合并猜测：约3万亿美元超级企业可能性与特斯拉估值影响分析
Following Musk's on-record comments about Tesla-SpaceX overlap on the Q2 earnings call, Gene Munster has now raised his probability estimate for a Tesla-SpaceX combination to 90%, adding a high-profile analyst endorsement to the existing merger speculation narrative. This is a new analyst reaction building directly on the prior Musk statement already tracked in Thread #1691.
[深度拆解]Elon Musk's crossing into trillionaire territory has reignited speculation about a full Tesla-SpaceX merger that could create a roughly $3 trillion combined entity, and the story escalated meaningfully when Musk himself referenced 'more and more overlap' between the two companies on Tesla's Q2 2026 earnings call — the closest he has come to publicly acknowledging the possibility.
谷歌Q2财报超预期：云计算增长加速，AI投资回报显现
This item adds the specific revenue figure of $112.11B, confirms the advertising revenue beat, and highlights a major $98B net gain driven primarily by SpaceX's IPO equity appreciation — a significant new financial detail not previously captured.
[重点解析]Google beat Q2 earnings and revenue estimates with cloud growth accelerating and AI investments beginning to pay off, with total revenue hitting $112.11B and a standout $98B net gain largely driven by SpaceX's IPO equity appreciation boosting Alphabet's bottom line.
谷歌Q2财报超预期，云计算增长加速，AI投资回报初现
Following the Q2 earnings beat, Google stock fell 7% as Wall Street analysts raised concerns about Alphabet's AI leadership position, the Gemini 4 roadmap, and escalating capital expenditures. This adds a significant negative market reaction and analyst skepticism angle to the existing Q2 earnings thread.
[深度拆解]The episode covered Google's blowout Q2 results in depth, noting that while revenue reached $112.11B on strong AI-driven ad performance, more than two-thirds of Alphabet's record quarterly profit came from roughly $99B in unrealized paper gains on equity stakes in Anthropic and SpaceX — raising questions about the sustainability of the profit surge.
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