马斯克成为万亿富翁引发特斯拉与SpaceX合并猜测：约3万亿美元超级企业可能性与特斯拉估值影响分析

发展时间线

1. 7月22日

   Elon Musk has reportedly become a trillionaire, reigniting market speculation about a potential Tesla-SpaceX merger that could create a ~$3 trillion combined entity. This is a new speculative story distinct from the Starlink-Cybercab integration thread, focusing on a full corporate merger scenario with major valuation implications for Tesla shareholders.

2. 7月23日

   Musk directly addressed merger speculation on Tesla's Q2 2026 earnings call, citing 'more and more overlap' between Tesla and SpaceX — the closest he has come to publicly confirming the possibility. This escalates the story from external speculation to a direct on-record statement by Musk himself, representing a meaningful new development.

3. 7月23日

   Following Musk's on-record comments about Tesla-SpaceX overlap on the Q2 earnings call, Gene Munster has now raised his probability estimate for a Tesla-SpaceX combination to 90%, adding a high-profile analyst endorsement to the existing merger speculation narrative. This is a new analyst reaction building directly on the prior Musk statement already tracked in Thread #1691.